Jackie Kennedy, who had been sat next to her husband when he was shot, gave a powerful testimony. Even today, JFK’s death remains shrouded in mystery.
It’s 48 years since US president John F Kennedy was assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald as his motorcade passed through downtown Dallas on 22 November 1963, leaving the world in shock.
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In its obituary, the Guardian described Kennedy as ‘a professional politician’ who, though young, had ‘proved himself a great President.’
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The Guardian’s leading article, which called JFK’s death ‘a tragedy for the world’, extolled him as ‘a true liberal…and a courageous leader.’
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In the days that followed the shooting, messages of condolence flooded in from world leaders, including Kennedy’s one-time rivals Nikita Krushchev and Fidel Castro.. Johnson, who as vice president had been hastily sworn in as soon as JFK’s death was announced.
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Oswald himself was shot dead just two days later, by nightclub owner Jack Ruby, as he was being escorted by police from Dallas City jail.
Despite this, conspiracy theories have abounded since Kennedy’s death, eyewitness accounts of a shot from the ‘grassy knoll’ seemingly conflicting with the official line. Ruby apparently told police, ‘I did it for Jackie Kennedy.’
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The Warren Commission was set up in the wake of Kennedy’s death to investigate the cause. In September 1964 the report concluded that Lee Harvey Oswald was a lone gunman.
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Alistair Cooke, then the Guardian’s America correspondent, wrote a profile of new president Lyndon B
Three weeks ago, we wrote that HP/Palm seemed to be actually be adding webOS engineers and managers; this week, reports emerged that nearly the entire webOS team would be sacked through massive layoffs.
If HP does move to hire a new permanent CEO, all bets are off.
Go Back to Top. Publicly, Whitman says shell continue to pursue the companys current strategies, but mostly confines that to the announced plan to acquire business software company Autonomy. According to these unnamed sources (familiar with/briefed on the situation), the board either has met or will meet today to formally agree to generously sack Lo Apotheker by offering him a fat severance package, which these days is de rigueur for talented Fortune 500 CEOs who need to be quickly shown the door.
So even if Apothekers ouster will satisfy those calling for someone to be held accountable for this mess, HP will likely be chaotic for quite some time.
This partially explains some of the strange HP news items that have filtered out since Apothekers controversial move to scuttle HPs TouchPad tablet and the Palm/webOS smartphone and hardware division. Those people dont play.). Even if the Whitman trial balloon rumors turn out not to be true and most of the credible sources willing to dish about everything take pains to emphasize that discussions about Whitman are early, she may not be hired, and she isnt exactly a perfect fit it seems like the board is serious about making another major change, and that Apotheker is in trouble.
After a string of disappointing quarters, Hewlett-Packard CEO Lo Apotheker killed the Palm hardware unit and proposed spinning off personal computing to focus the company on enterprise software. All of them have a stake in preserving their own units and reputations; big shake-ups of the kind Apotheker proposed, coupled with his brief tenure and relative lack of allies within HP, were bound to lead to a large number of very powerful and deeply unhappy people.
Also, HPs upstream suppliers in China and Taiwan now say that ex-CEO Apothekers plan to spin off HPs PC and hardware division may be cancelled, meaning that HP will continue to be a major force in consumer computing after all.
Now, though, Apothekers ouster at least seems quite likely. The New York Times had the fullest account of the boards reported deliberations, citing unnamed insiders not authorized by the board to speak publicly.
Updates 2 and 3: HPs board did indeed name Meg Whitman its new CEO on Thursday. Skip To: Start of Article.
Early reports that HPs board was meeting to oust Apotheker and potentially replace him with ex-eBay head (and California gubernatorial candidate) Meg Whitman began filtering out through press leaks yesterday morning. An interim CEO may simply carry out the planned personal computing group spinoff and try to keep the company afloat until it decides who would best lead the company going forward. Lesjak was Apothekers point person on the conference call breaking the bad news on future quarterly projections and supporting her bosss play to axe Palm and spin off the PSG. The boards Raymond Lane also received a promotion, from Chairman to Executive Chairman.
Update: According to multiple sources speaking to AllThingsD and the Wall Street Journal, the Hewlett-Packard board is expected to name Meg Whitman the new (not interim) CEO after the markets close today (Thursday). When you run a company as large and varied as HP, you effectively manage a team of junior CEOs who each are charged with giant companies. No word on whether Palms smartphone and tablet hardware division will get a reprieve or not. Apothekers reign shows that when a new CEO tries to carry out the business vision of the outgoing chief, the company will lose its way.
Add tanking stock, an inability to attract buyers for the PC division, increasing outflows to customers and vendors over the TouchPad debacle, and what seemed to many like an overenthusiastic acquisition price for British business software company Autonomy, soon both large and rank-and-file investors were profoundly displeased, too. The Times James B. Stewart published a story treating the firing as practically a fait accompli, with on-the-record sources giving accounts of a deeply dysfunctional board ambivalent about hiring Apotheker in the first place. Some even sued, claiming the companys executives misled investors about how badly it was stumbling.
The HP board may not make a decision on Apotheker until as late as Friday, AllThingsDs Kara Swisher reports. Whatever forward might turn out to mean.
Still, it wasnt clear what exactly was happening; industry sources I spoke to whod heard some of the earliest reports were equally inclined to see it as a trial balloon, an attempt by unhappy forces within HP to force the boards hand, or even some kind of complicated ruse to flush out bids for HPs personal computing division. (If you want to hear some stone realpolitik Kremlinology, talk to people in the business-facing software business. Now HPs board looks set to kill Apothekers tenure to focus the company on finding new leadership.
Refocusing the company on enterprise and cloud may still make sense as a strategy, but the particulars of how, when or even whether that will happen cant be treated as certain any more.
Im really curious what Catherine Lesjak, HPs CFO and a one-time interim CEO, thinks about all this
Online casino games are still games and although they may not fall into the same category as Pacman or World of Warcraft, they should still entertain you enough to stay for fun. The worst possible scenario at any casino would be to enter with a certain amount of money and then leave with nothing. This does not simply mean taking the casino’s word for what the odds are. As such, if your purse amount is high, it’s important to keep aware of your win-loss ratio. People will try to peddle “tried-and-tested” ways to place certain bets of make money. Accordingly, slot machines may pay out more in the end but often work progressively to build up to that win and on a smaller budget you may not make it unless you strike it very lucky.
When planning your budget for your day of casino action, it helps to plan your expenses as though you were planning a night out. If there were ‘cheats’ so to speak then there would be no casinos, as they would all be bankrupt by now. Once games stop being fun and have increasingly high, stress-inducing stakes, you should think twice about playing.
It’s always important to remember that gambling tips to win a game should always be presented as strategies to improve your odds over the house edge, and never as sure-fire methods to win each round. You should choose games that will make the most of the money you have available, such as roulette, blackjack, baccarat and craps. In terms of responsible gambling, when you have played through your allotted amount, the best thing to do is leave. That is to say, how much you have spent and how much you have won from the beginning of your casino session.
4) What game you choose to participate in is just as important as the odds for that specific game. Set your budget based on ‘money spent for entertainment tonight’ and if you turn a profit consider switching to playing with your winnings alone.
. However, for all the e-books in the world, those people do not make money from playing casino games; they are in the business of selling books. The best information out there doesn’t claim a fool-proof strategy but rather explains how to incrementally improve your odds against the house each round where possible.
3) Be wary of so-called gambling systems or gambling tips to win.
1) The latter point relates to the first tip when deciding to gamble: know the house edge. With that being said here are five great ways to improve yours odds.
2) It sounds odd but when you decide to gamble, make room for the possibility of losing, whether playing at land-based, online or live casinos. If all of the systems worked as claimed then the existence of casinos would be unsustainable.
5) Finally, have fun. Many people end up thinking they have an edge over the house because they’ve taken the word of an ‘expert’
ALL bets must be placed in person, but you do not need to be in Vegas to win or collect. Remember that OVERTIME COUNTS when betting totals.
Ready? Find your team and the bet number. The Texans are favorites, indicated by the (-) sign and the Dolphins are underdogs or ‘dogs’ indicated by the (+) sign. Now, CHECK YOUR TICKET FOR ACCURACY and if you drink, ask for a drink ticket when you place your bet. If the underdog Dolphins win outright, tie or lose by seven points (or less) the Dolphins are declared the winner for betting purposes and you lose. This is the moneyline. ALL bets must be placed BEFORE kickoff. Or, find your team and bet numbers for the game, walk up to the window and tell the ticket writer that you would like to bet $110 on the OVER (or UNDER) in the Texans/Dolphins game #465/466. Good choice, the Texans are 7 1/2 point favorites. The Texans are -370 and Dolphins +300. It is customary to bet in increments of $11 ($22, $33, $55,…$1100, etc.) when straight betting/point spread betting. See the 43 in the total column? If you believe that both teams are healthy, happy and the weather will be perfect and you KNOW this game will be a high scoring game OVER 43 combined points, you can bet $11 (or $110) to win $10 + your $11 (or $100 + your $110) back. Remember that IF your team wins AND covers the spread you will get back your original bet PLUS $10 for each $11 dollars bet. When straight betting or betting the spread that team must cover the spread. Or you could bet the Dolphins for $100 and win $300 + your $100 bet for a total of $400 back – IF the Dolphins win.Another way you can bet on this game is to bet the total. Las Vegas runs on tips and good service should be rewarded. Or for the same rates, you can bet that the COMBINED score will be UNDER 43 points. Or $37 to win $10 + your $37 bet. Walk up to the betting window and tell the Ticket Writer that you would like to straight bet or just bet $110 on #466. The -7 1/2 under the line column indicates the Texans are 7 1/2 point favorites. Ask the sportsbook staff about mailing and cashing your winning tickets from out of state. You win if they win by any number of points. The point spread is always placed to the right of the team that is favored. Now find the corresponding bet number next to your team and circle it. You can also view this information up above your head on the big, brightly lit boards, but it’s easier to grab a paper copy to study at your leisure.Find the team that you are convinced will win. In this example you have selected #466 the Houston Texans. The bottom or second team listed is always the home team and has the home field advantage.Look at that point spread again. It can get you more drink tickets and even better service on your next visit.
A few final notes. More on that in future articles.What if you still like the Texans to win but heard about some key player injuries or weather changes or other factors that could affect the team’s performance on Sunday? You are still convinced they will win but not sure if they will win by MORE than a touchdown. Notice that the Texans are the ‘bottom’ team of the two teams listed. Again, CHECK YOUR TICKET FOR ACCURACY, thank the Ticket Writer and ask for a drink ticket and enjoy the game.
In Vegas for the weekend and you’d like to place a friendly wager on your favorite team but don’t know where (or how) to begin? Follow these simple step-by-step instructions and you’ll be able to walk up to the casino sportsbook window and place your first NFL or college football bet like a pro.
Stop by the book, short for sportsbook, and pick up the current week’s odds sheet for the sport (in this example NFL football) you are interested in. Each sportsbook (or group of sportsbooks) have established minimum bets and maximum bets, ask the Ticket Writer about minimum bets if you’re a Low Roller or maximum bet limits if you are a High Roller.. Remember that teams that cover the point spread win. Can you see why point spreads of 3, 7 and even 10 and 14 are extremely important? And to add to your stress, point spreads fluctuate up and down as the kick-off approaches. You just spent (invested) $110, you deserve a free cocktail.
Or, find your team and bet number and walk up to the window and tell the Ticket Writer that you would like to place a $37 moneyline bet on #466 the Houston Texans. For your $110 bet you would get $210 back when you cash your winning ticket after the game. Good Luck.
And finally, consider tipping the helpful Ticket Writer a dollar or two or ten. In this example, if you straight bet the Texans, they must win by EIGHT points or more in order for you to win your bet. You could just as easily bet $370 or $3700. Look back at your sheet under the M/L column. This is optional when placing your bets, but a tradition when cashing your winning tickets. You can bet the moneyline, that is bet the Texans to win by laying $370 to win $100 + your $370 bet. DO NOT LOSE YOUR TICKET. As above, CHECK YOUR TICKET FOR ACCURACY, thank the Ticket Writer and ask for a drink ticket and relax.
Now, go pick up your odds sheets, pick some winners and step up to the window
Online gambling can be fun hobby if you are able to set your limits and control your spending. While the bets were risk free, though, I found myself hooked on the spinning wheels and bonus rounds. Good luck!
If you feel that your gambling is no longer under your control, then the option to disable your accounts for a set period of time is available. You can do it. Generally the sites will not discourage you and instead assist you if you want their help. I read through William Hill’s responsible gambling guide and found out about self exclusion. Below, I will let you know my experience with each company. I made the decision to permanently disable all my online gambling accounts. The forums on the money saving site were full of people bragging about four-figure wins from these bets. However if we were all capable of doing that, then there would be no profits for the online bookmakers.
Once you lose the ability to control your spending, your best course of action is to remove your access from your favorite sites. I first tried to cancel my accounts but within a day I had reactivated them and was gambling again. I had a talent or a knack for gambling and I took my winnings up to 600.00.
Soon, I found myself logging into my William Hill account first thing in the morning and then every fifteen minutes whilst I worked from home. This article explains the process for the main bookmakers in the UK.
My Experience with Gambling Sites
Towards the end of 2011, I began taking advantage of risk free bets on the William Hill website. However, deleting your account is not enough as you can reopen your account at any time. I found out about these risk free bets through a very popular money saving website based in the UK. To fully disable any access to your online account you will need to enter into a self exclusion agreement with the company involved. I went from making risk free bets to making one off 1.00 bets until I was regularly spending 50.00 on a single spin.
By early January 2013, I was heavily overdrawn and realized that my gambling was no longer fun and if I was to keep my self out of trouble I would need to take some serious action.
He never saw any reason to purchase any property or make any sound investments. He has no assets. As an adult child I also am suddenly worried about having to support my parents at some point.
How Do They Live With Themselves?
Even though I know it is a disease and he really cant help himself, part of me resents him for not being adult enough to seek help sooner. It has been almost a year since the truth was revealed, and I am still angry at the waste and the bleak future my parents face as their fixed income slowly becomes inadequate to meet their needs as they get older. As most adult children of any kind of addict know, its not that you actually hate them – thats too toxic to carry around. Its a twisted mindset that allows them to blow everything they have while bills go unpaid. His weird relationship with money was passed on to his kids.
Almost as Bad as the Gambling…the Lying
When we uncovered my fathers gambling addiction, the devastation to my family unit was irreparable. In the blink of an eye, more than half was gone. Money is what they need to fuel their habit of placing bets, whether it be lotto cards, horse racing or blackjack. We figured it out because my father had tripped himself up by trying to cover his tracks. They view money as something to play with, almost like Monopoly money. The sum total of my fathers income is now a meager Social Security check. This makes gambling a very tough addiction to break, because like food addictions, the gambler is addicted to something they have to use in everyday life – money.
Gamblers Can Keep on Going…
The insidious thing about gambling is that a gambler who has access to money can literally support their habit for many years without getting caught. My sister and I have struggled for most of our adult lives to build a healthy respect for money.
Some gamblers do experience big payoffs, but the money is quickly spent on placing more, and bigger bets. I know that I will eventually have to forgive, right now Im just trying to figure out how to sit in the same room with a parent that I never actually liked or trusted. Deep down they hate themselves for their habit, but like children, they are unwilling to come clean.
My fathers inability to own up to his destructive behavior is a big reason for my current unwillingness to speak to him. If it had not been for my quick thinking, they would have lost everything. How does someone live with themselves?
by Macteacher 2013
The other insidious thing about problem gamblers or compulsive gamblers is the pathological lying. I also resent all the money that my grandparents left being swallowed up by his disease. He was never generous with money, even though he always had a wad of bills in his pocket. They live their lives in a fantasy world where the next big win is right around the corner. In order to keep their secret they will lie to anyone, spouses, children, parents, coworkers and friends. He had money for expensive vacations, expensive jewelry and nice cars, but paying for his kids college education was out of his reach. Ive been talking to a disease for most of my life, not a real father. He was a fairly successful insurance man with 50 years in the business, yet when the true extent of his addiction came to light last year, we were dumbfounded. This was In addition to fudging bank statements so that she didnt know he was siphoning off their other savings account. Their low self esteem compels them to live like high rollers – and spend on luxuries when they cant even pay the mortgage. This inability to plan for the future is another symptom of the disease of compulsive gambling. Part of me wonders how he sat down over breakfast every morning with a woman who has taken care of him for 50 years, while he was robbing her blind. It was money she was counting on to supplement their income when they reached their eighties. Any financial relief is out of reach because no matter how much money a gambler can get their hands on, it is never enough to satisfy their insatiable craving for betting.
It’s Not Just The Betting
A gamblers true addiction is money. Money enables the gambler to stay in the action, a gambling term for active betting. Weve both finally reached a place of sanity and serenity in our own lives.
It’s Exhausting For the Family
Gam-Anon and other organizations preach forgiveness above all else. Gamblers do not think any further ahead than the next bet. The other part of me resents his obsession with money and being the hot shot while I was growing up. They spend their lives trying to cover their tracks. They make financial decisions based on how much money they can hoard for gambling. If not for my mothers pension, they would be out on the street.
It’s Never Enough
A man who has spent a lifetime telling other people how to invest for emergencies has ended up penniless. As it turned out, my father had helped himself to an annuity my mother had religiously contributed to every month for 25 years during the course of her teaching career. Gamblers will function quite well as long as they have a ready source of cash, such as a family member or income from a business or investments. By that time, the damage is done and it is usually irreversible.
They Usually End Up Penniless
My father has reached his seventies without saving a penny. This is not something I should have to worry about with people who earned a good living during their work lives. Gambling is a disease after all, and you cant blame someone for being sick. Any adult child of a compulsive gambler who thinks they will see any type of inheritance is fooling themselves.. You just get worn out and tired, just really tired.
This is another symptom of the compulsive gambler: Their skewed relationship with money. Money is slowly siphoned from the source until there is nothing left. He has no savings, and he is too old to make up for lost time
Now consider the following thought experiment. You have no other information. The tension of placing your money on the line and then biting your nails, waiting for the ball to land, give people a rush that borders on substance abuse. Since all the bet types are equally not in your favor (none are better to play than another), you could just as easily close your eyes and pick one at random. Understanding the house advantage is key because that education will help you play more intelligently. This is just one example of intelligent betting and it can only be done if you pay attention to the history of the wheel and quantify as much as possible. Therefore, if you get 9 odds, why would you assume that you can pinpoint the exact spin that will change it back to evens? It’s more likely that you will correctly guess that it will remain odd. A 48.6% chance means that out of 100 trials, you can expect 48.6 of them to be won. If there is less certainty of you losing, there is a greater possibility of you winning but remember that this doesn’t mean a greater “certainty” or better “odds” of you winning. The only guarantee is that there are no guarantees.
There are a ton of scams on the internet, all promising a return on investment. You are asked one day to predict if it will burn out in the next 10 minutes or not. The idea is that the more data points you have, the closer the win ratio will approach the game’s probability. Nobody can guarantee you anything with Roulette. The take-away from all of this is that, if you have any hope in hell of walking out of a casino with more money than you walked in with, you have to play AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE. If you started with 1000 bucks, which way would you rather spend it?
Knowledge is power
As you can see, you can’t change the game but you can change the way you play it and maximize the “volatility” of the outcomes so that you are less “certain” to lose. In this case I’d bet odds. If you want to really get competitive with it and try to win, be careful not to get upset or suffer financial ruin if you lose because the game is designed to beat you. How come? Notice how many odds came up after the first even number. It’s an exciting game and the element of chance is what draws people to it. You can see, from the above example, that playing less means fewer data points, which translates to a less accurate win ratio. Less accurate means more significantly less or more than 48.6. The odds of winning are expressed as a probability, as in, you have a 48.6% chance of winning if you bet red, for example. You can apply whatever strategy you like and it won’t change the way the game works. If the number of trials (or spins in this case) is finite (let’s say 50 spins), the number of spins you win could be quite a bit different from 48.6 because there hasn’t been sufficient time for the probabilistic nature of the wheel to express itself in the data points. Having said that, you can make the game more exciting by using a betting aid to quantify all of the statistical information for you, so you can use your brain to figure out what to bet on. The house always wins. As we will soon see, if you want to be any more strategic than that, you’re far better with a betting “aid” than a betting “system”.
The best way to play
With regards to the house advantage, it is only a couple of percentage points but that’s more than enough for casinos to make a consistent profit over gamers. The more spins you record, the closer the win percentage will approach the ideal probability of 48.6%. Betting on change becomes increasingly irrational, the longer things haven’t changed. In the above example I said that reds and blacks don’t tell you anything but that I might want to bet odds. It just means you’re in an oscillating system that hasn’t converged yet, which is the best place to be if you want to win.
Beating the odds
The second thing you need to realize about Roulette is that the probabilistic nature of the game is determined by physics, not by strategy. Probabilities are only precise when the number of trials are infinite. With less time and more money, the odds haven’t settled in and you could win some money. Why would it change at the specific moment when you arbitrarily decide to bet on it? This is the nature of the universe. Whenever you actively take control of what you are doing and really break it down into known quantities, it is very empowering and offers a greater sense of satisfaction, whether you win or lose because you are in control of what you are doing. If you’re lucky and the fluctuation is greater than the game’s probability, it might be 51% and you could walk away with some cash. As always, remember to bet as much as you’re comfortable with and to leave as quickly as you can afford to, so the odds don’t have time to converge.
Be responsible and have fun!
Roulette is a fun game. With more time and less money, the odds are more likely to settle in and you’re more likely to lose to the house advantage. This brings me to my next point.
Bet big! If you aren’t staying long, this works out well because less time and more money is the same as more time and less money but there’s a HUGE difference in how this will affect your bankroll. Why? Here’s where things get interesting.
By quantifying everything and having all statistical info at hand you can make smarter bets. Remember that.
It’s important to be able to quantify as much as humanly possible about the game because it helps you see which types of bets are converging more quickly and which ones, less quickly. The reason is that it has been on for 10 years. You have a light bulb and it’s been on for 10 years. 10 minutes is nothing compared to that. If anyone tells you that you are guaranteed to turn a profit using their strategy, they are lying.
Roulette is a game. What it DOES NOT mean is that for every 100 spins of the Roulette wheel you must win 48.6 of those spins. As you can see this is HIGHLY skewed in favor of odds and very orderly, even though it’s almost perfectly balanced for reds and blacks. With that I bid you happy gaming!
. The only difference is, if you can quantify the streaks and trends for each bet type, you can see the evolution of that particular group. What this tells you is that there’s no point betting on red and blacks but you MIGHT want to play odds or evens. For example, when examining reds and blacks you might observe: R,R,B,R,B,B,B,B,R,R, which is pretty random and very close to the ideal probability for the game. This goes for pretty much any activity too. It gives you a greater sense of control over your money instead of the “cross your fingers” approach and as long as you accept the outcome for what it is, it can be a lot of fun. It’s a huge streak of 9 numbers. After 1000 it might be 48.8 and after 100000000 it might be 48.601. What would you do? It’s painfully obvious that you should bet that it will not burn out. After 50 spins it might be 42, after 100 it might be 51. The outcome of each spin is a consequence of matter interacting with matter, without any human factor being involved. However the same set of outcomes for odds and evens might look like: E,O,O,O,O,O,O,O,O.O. As you know, percentages are based on the number 100. The more clever scammers promise a modest return with all sorts of honest sounding caveats to make you think they are telling the truth but even promises of small gains (10 bucks a day or 51% chance of winning) are all lies. Things that are a certain way, tend to stay that way, the longer they have BEEN that way in the past. You can certainly affect your bankroll with different strategies in the sense that your money will come and go in different ways depending on how you play but at no point are you ever changing the odds of the game. As long as you can control your hunger for the game and as long as you realize that the money you spend is “play money” that you don’t mind losing, you can enjoy Roulette for the game that it is
Its just that simple. A stock situation where Warren Buffett invested a huge portion of his portfolio was the Salad Oil Scandal where he invested in American Express. As with any model, the formula is only as good as its input. Click here on how to identify undervalued stocks. Charlie Munger
Pros and Cons of Using Kelly Criterion in Investing
1. Many famed value investors such as Bruce Berkowitz, Donald Yacktman, Mohnish Pabrai and Warren Buffett runs concentrated portfolio where they take up huge position in their high conviction stock picks. Small allocations to prescient investments minimize their impact while large allocations to poorly performing investments leads to underperformance
We might invest up to 40% of our net worth in a single security under conditions coupling an extremely high probability that our facts and reasoning are correct with a very low probability that anything could change the underlying value of the investment. One method that they could be using to determine the position sizing is the Kelly Criterion. Kelly Criterion require investors to estimate six inputs. When used conservatively, the formula will maximize portfolio growth by allocating capital to the most advantageous investments given both prospective return and risk.
Investing successfully requires an investor to make many decisions. In a speech at the University of Southern Californias Marshall School of Business, Charlie Munger said:
So edge/odds=17.45/21 x10,000= 8309. You believe that Cisco is undervalued and attractive. The first and foremost decision is the amount of capital available for investing, the type of asset (e.g. For more detail on the Kelly Criterion, I recommend reading: Fortunes Formula by William Poundstone
The same thoughts and approach was shared by his partner, Charlie Munger. Based on Kelly Criterion, 3.75% of the portfolio should be allocated to Cisco.
Evidence of Kelly Criterion used by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger
Mohnish Pabrai, in chapter 10 (page 78 81) of The Dhandho Investor discussed that Buffetts concentrated bets gives considerable evidence that Buffet thinks like a Kelly investor, citing Buffett bets of 25% to 40% of his net worth on single situations. This strategy suggests investors should invest proportionally according to their return expectations. What were the odds that this bet offered? Mr Buffett shed some light in his letters to partners from 1964 to 1967:
80% chance of winning $21
10% chance of winning $7.5
10% chance of losing it all
1. The next 4 factors are regarding the investment itself: the probability of gain in a base case, probability of loss in a stress case, percent of projected gain in the base case, and percent of projected loss in the stress case
Credit: GrizzlyRock Capital
According to Kelly Criterion, the edge is equal to 80% x 21 + 10% x 7.5 + 10% x -1( because we have lost our money)=16.8+0.75-0.1=17.45
For example, you have a $100,000 portfolio of US equities and that your maximum portfolio drawdown tolerable is 15% of all assets. Regardless whether capital allocators select investment managers or individual securities, optimal position sizing is paramount to portfolio success. If investment allocators systematically overestimate the probability of success, long run return will be hampered
The Kelly Criterion is valuable to investors given the systematic, repeatable process and mathematically optimal portfolio structure. And the rest of the time, they dont. Your research of Cisco tells you that the projected gain in the base case is 12% and the loss in the stress case to be 8%. We are obviously only going to go to 40% in very rare situations this rarity, of course, is what makes it necessary that we concentrate so heavily, when we see such an opportunity.
Some investors use a simplified model to construct their portfolio where an equal weight allocation is given to all investments not taking into account uncertainty regarding which investments will perform best. So you can bet $8309 on the bet.
Applying Kelly Criterion to Investing
Accordingly to GrizzlyRock Capital, the Kelly Criterion has six inputs when used in investing. Using the Kelly Criterion in position sizing allow the investor to consider behavioral bias. Basic questions like, “how much can we make, what is the downside risk, and what are the probabilities of each”, must be answered before any asset is placed in the portfolio
Odds= Maximum money that we can win= 21. The advantage of this methodology is matching prospective return to investment size. However, the drawback of this strategy includes underweighting exceptional investments and overweighting marginal ideas.
An alternative strategy is to allocate large amount of capitals to the ideas with the most potential upside. He effectively bet 40 percent of his net worth on a scandal-ridden business making negative headlines daily. The portfolio is then rebalanced on a regular basis to maintain the equal-weight allocation. mutual funds, index funds, stocks, gold etc.) to invest in and construct an investment portfolio. The probability of gain is projected to be 55% (base case) and 45% probability of losing (stress case). The formula assumes a bimodal outcome of success (base case) or failure (stress case) over a single time period:
How to compute the amount to invest/bet on a stock?
Lets assume somebody offers you the following odds on a $1 bet and your bankroll is $10,000.
The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. The first 2 factors are portfolio size and amount of capital the portfolio will risk in the pursuit of gain. Kelly Criterion allows investors to bet bigger on their high conviction stocks
2. This equal weighted strategy benefits from simplicity and it prevents the portfolio from being over-allocated to one particular stock. However you are unsure of how to size the position within the portfolio. This mathematical formula was developed by John Larry Kelly Jr 50 years ago while working at the AT&T Bell Laboratories. They bet big when they have the odds. Mohnish Pabrai in his book, The Dhandho Investor, explain exclusively on how Kelly Formula can be used for portfolio allocation and how investors can benefit from using it.
What is Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Growth Criterion is a simple formula that determines mathematically optimal allocations to maximize long-term portfolio performance given each investments probability of success (edge) compared to the amount gained or lost (odds). Portfolio constructed using this strategy will tend to be concentrated with most of the portfolio being invested in a few high conviction stocks
With everyone getting involved in solving the mystery and learning to work on the cues, then finding out who the murderer is. You can even get all the board games for adults like – Poker, Black Jack, Russian roulette and more.
You’re having guests over and you want to show them a good time. The twist is that every new sentence has to start with the next alphabet. This has to be done in the stipulated time that has been provided (say, 60 seconds). The member has to draw out the word on the board that has been provided. If you use any of the taboo words, you get negative markings. For example the main word that you need to convey is ‘basketball’ and the taboo words are ‘sports’, ‘Michael Jordan’, ‘net’ and ‘dunk’. This is a good ice breaker game.. Some of these are:
Scenes from a hat – Put in some really atrocious situations that people have to act out in pairs. And the music that you’ll have especially selected to play will be a sure hit, no doubt. There can be more variations to the clues given in charades ranging from movie and song names to book names as well. Such interactive murder mystery games serve as great ice breaker games for adults.
The way it is played is that there are two teams that play against each other. Try them and see.
Bring them a casino and your guests will love this fun indoor game like nothing else. The team that uses the maximum alphabets, wins.
Guaranteed fun. When all of them have seated, pick a chit and announce the actor or actress. Now how do you get them to do that? Just choose from the following list of games that have been provided and let the fun begin.
Taboo is a really fun-packed game that makes you stay on your toes, think real fast and tests your mental ability to the limit. Once they start playing these games you’ll see how they lose their inhibitions and really start to enjoy themselves. These words are the most obvious options that you would use to describe the main word. Make a list of 5 actors and 5 actresses. These could be anything from mimicking someone or singing a song to any of the ‘forfeits’ that you can think of. Each member of the team picks a card that has a word on it which he has to convey to his teammates by explaining the concept behind it, but while doing that he cannot use the 4 words that are taboo (can’t use them for describing the main word). The teammates have to guess the word correctly. For example – You walk in on a friend who is picking his nose.
The ABC story – You give a group a situation that they need to enact. The way Pictionary works is that the group is divided into teams. Both these games require one to be quick thinkers and smart.
Always a hit party game. That is what these games ensure. These were some examples of the most popular indoor games for adults that you can use at your parties and instantly turn them into big hits. But you’ll enjoy every second of it.
Who’s Line is it Anyway?
Have any of you caught this very popular show on TV? It has some of the most innovative and fun games that you can think of. But do you really want to know how to ensure that your guests have a great time at your party? The easiest way to make that happen is to arrange for some fun indoor games. You need to get as many words as you can in a minute. It gets really tensed and competitive, mind you. You’ll find that this one will be a pleasant surprise and make for some of the most fun games.
These I’m sure you’ve at least heard of. You hide your final treasure and put in clues all around the house, one clue leads to the next and so on.
Murder mysteries can get so intense. A member from each team comes forth and is given a chit that has the word on it for example ‘chocolate cake’. Dumb charades is played in the same manner, except that the clues have to be acted out. There are some of these that you can use as birthday party games and get your party to really rock. The team that guesses the most right, wins. At the end of the game, the person who has the maximum names, wins. These four words, as you can see, are some of the most obvious words that you would use to describe ‘basketball’. All this becomes important because your team’s performance depends on the same.
List Them Out
This game is quite simple and can be played by any age group. Yes of course there will be those great dishes you will have cooked up, all arranged in a four course meal, no less. Like if the first sentence started with an ‘A’ then the next one has to continue with a ‘B’ until the whole alphabet line is done. Out of the Hat
Make chits of a whole lot of activities. Give each guest a pen and paper. It teaches you to be accurate and get your point across as perfectly as you can. A crowd pleaser through and through. The guests have to make a list of all the movies that they can think of in which the actor/actress had starred